In late May, the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced that couples would be allowed to have three children. As late as 2015, CCP finally gave up its draconic one-child policy, in force since 1979, for a two-child policy, but the number of births soon kept falling. In spite of the two-child policy the fertility rate has in the last few years actually fallen to just 1.3, well below 2.1 births per woman, the level required to maintain a stable population.
The Party is experiencing the recoil effect of its biopolitics. At the turn of the century, China’s population, according to UN World Population Prospects (2019) medium variant, will have fallen to just over 1 billion. The population in 55 countries is expected to decrease during the next few decades, but no other country, with the exception of Iran, has undergone such a rapid and compressed demographic transformation as China, with a rapidly aging population and a diminishing labor supply. The causes are deep-rooted, beyond just launching a three-child policy. The one-child policy also had a tragic impact on the nation’s gender ratio, resulting in an extreme predominance in birth rates for boys and tens of millions of “missing women.” Technological developments with robots and AI will dramatically reduce the effects of China’s declining supply of labor but is seems clear is that the country is facing unique demographic challenges, with global consequences. The shadow that China is casting is growing in complexity!
The Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia and the East Asian Institute (EAI) at the National University of Singapore Forge Academic Partnership
The Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia at the Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University and the East Asian Institute (EAI) at the National University of Singapore, are delighted to announce a new academic collaboration.
This past semester, the Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia engaged in conversations and research on topics ranging from Indonesia’s election to US-Taiwan relations with the goal of continuing to develop policy solutions to the region’s most pressing concerns.
Understanding the next phase of US-China relations
From the potential for revived tariffs to the implications for global collaboration, Rajawali Director Tony Saich examines the key dynamics shaping what could be a pivotal era in US-China relations.
The Determining Elements of the New Great Power Competition: Unpacking the Race for Technological Supremacy
In his latest occasional paper, Ronen Medzini, Rajawali Fellow, explains that while the US and China are not strangers to the “great power” competition, technology supremacy has superseded ideology as what lies at the crux of these dynamics. He goes on to examine critical technologies, their key attributes, and their impacts on national security, commerce, and society while exploring strategies for achieving technological superiority.
In his latest occasional paper, Dan Murphy explores whether partnering with these universities is advisable given the national security implications. Murphy argues that while caution is warranted, American universities should not shy away from all potential collaborations with the Seven Sons.