Policy Brief
In late May, the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced that couples would be allowed to have three children. As late as 2015, CCP finally gave up its draconic one-child policy, in force since 1979, for a two-child policy, but the number of births soon kept falling. In spite of the two-child policy the fertility rate has in the last few years actually fallen to just 1.3, well below 2.1 births per woman, the level required to maintain a stable population.
The Party is experiencing the recoil effect of its biopolitics. At the turn of the century, China’s population, according to UN World Population Prospects (2019) medium variant, will have fallen to just over 1 billion. The population in 55 countries is expected to decrease during the next few decades, but no other country, with the exception of Iran, has undergone such a rapid and compressed demographic transformation as China, with a rapidly aging population and a diminishing labor supply. The causes are deep-rooted, beyond just launching a three-child policy. The one-child policy also had a tragic impact on the nation’s gender ratio, resulting in an extreme predominance in birth rates for boys and tens of millions of “missing women.” Technological developments with robots and AI will dramatically reduce the effects of China’s declining supply of labor but is seems clear is that the country is facing unique demographic challenges, with global consequences. The shadow that China is casting is growing in complexity!
Media Release
The Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia at the Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University and the East Asian Institute (EAI) at the National University of Singapore, are delighted to announce a new academic collaboration.
Feature
Chinese President Xi Jinping has laid out his vision for China’s economic and social future – and it places Xi Jinping at the very center.
Feature
This past semester, the Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia engaged in conversations and research on topics ranging from Indonesia’s election to US-Taiwan relations with the goal of continuing to develop policy solutions to the region’s most pressing concerns.
Occasional Paper
In his latest occasional paper, Dan Murphy explores whether partnering with these universities is advisable given the national security implications. Murphy argues that while caution is warranted, American universities should not shy away from all potential collaborations with the Seven Sons.
Essay
The population is declining in more than 60 countries, in many cases dramatically. Families with one or no children are becoming increasingly common. The challenges are global, with far-reaching consequences.
Media Release
The Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia at the Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University and the East Asian Institute (EAI) at the National University of Singapore, are delighted to announce a new academic collaboration.
