On October 16, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene its 20th Party Congress. Held every five years, the Congress is a critical event. While nothing is seriously debated there, the symbolic function of the Congress is extremely important. It summarizes past achievements and sets out future objectives, all while displaying an outward power and unity. The Congress brings together just over 3,000 delegates from the provinces, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and some central agencies for about a week to approve the report of the General Secretary, amendments to the party statutes, and any other documents placed before them. In theory, this sets in motion the appointment of a new leadership by electing candidates to the Central Committee (around 200 members and 150 alternates). In reality, the Congress approves the slate proposed by the outgoing Political Bureau (Politburo) and senior leader- ship. In turn, the Central Committee elects members of the Politburo, its Standing Committee, and the Secretariat, again based on lists provided after the Party leadership has finished haggling.
This Congress will be special, as General Secretary Xi Jinping seeks a third term as political leader (either as general secretary or party chairman), confirms his place and ideas even more concretely within the party statutes, and seeks to appoint a leadership cohort drawn from his associates. Below, I provide my best guesstimates on his chances of reappointment, the leadership structure, and indications for future policy trends.
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Anthony Saich, the director of the Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia and Daewoo Professor of International Affairs recently spoke at the China Centre, University of Sydney about President Donald J. Trump and his relationship with China.
This talk, entitled “An Unpredictable President and U.S. China Relations”, provides an initial analysis of how a second Trump administration could influence US-China relations forecasting his approach, and figuring out whether he will adopt the role of a deal-maker or take a more combative stance aimed at undermining rivals.
Saich focuses on three key areas of concern: tariffs, Taiwan, and technology controls.
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